Sports activities betting is a merciless, fickle mistress. Someday, you’re elated after hitting a two-game parlay, the subsequent you lose all of your cash plus your canine and your firstborn. It’s an emotional rollercoaster that both goes off the rails or ends in thrilling pleasure, begging winners to return.
Properly, final night time was in all probability one of many worst nights bettors have ever endured.
The primary, and most blatant motive, was the over/below for this sport. Bettors flocked to hit the below, which was set at 40 factors on most on-line websites initially of the week — 40.5 early on, on others. The below was guess so arduous that the road really moved all the way down to as little as 37.5 on some websites. For some context, a two-and-a-half-point change in both path is big.
These bettors who had religion within the below initially of the week have been elated to see the rating at 23-17 previous to the final play, 40 whole factors, a push, or a win in case you had 40.5. They have been actually loving that missed Cade York PAT at that time, I’m sure. Certain, Pittsburgh was pinned at its personal four-yard line, so a security wasn’t out of the query, however after Mitch Trubisky acquired his go off to Diontae Johnson, bettors felt secure. They have been doubtless leaping for pleasure. Johnson was principally on the 18. There was no approach he’d stroll again to the top zone, proper? Properly, he didn’t, however after a lateral to Chase Claypool and one other lateral to Najee Harris, the ball discovered its approach again into the Steeler finish zone. Regardless of who pounced on high of the fumble — it was cornerback Denzel Ward — below bettors have been down unhealthy. The Browns ended up with a landing. That was the one turnover of the sport.
Right here’s that play:
What makes it even more painful is that the Browns had a chance to put the game away one possession earlier in the waning minutes. On a third-down-run play to Nick Chubb, refs signaled a first down, which would have essentially ended the game. But hold on! Steelers coach Mike Tomlin challenged the spot and won. The Browns then sent out their punt team, pinning the Steelers within their own five. Brutal.
That brings me to my next point. Bettors seemed inclined on betting against Mitch Trubisky in this game. The most popular bet of the week, in terms of total bettors, was Trubisky INTs over 0.5. The most popular bet of the week, in terms of money, was Trubisky under 207.5 yards passing. The money was so heavy in favor of the passing under that it actually shifted to 192.5 by the start of Thursday Night Football.
Surely, Trubisky, a trash QB in Chicago now sent to replace the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger would throw an interception this game. Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Grant Delpit — one of them was sure to catch one of Trubisky’s errant passes. However, as the night went on, Trubisky never even really threw an interceptable pass. The closest came with 2:27 left in the fourth quarter. Trubisky took a massive shot to the end zone for George Pickens. Pickens, who’d already made a spectacular catch on the night, stepped in front of his defender and seemingly had a beat on the ball, but could only reach out one hand to try to reel it in. He didn’t. Instead, he knocked the ball up in the air. The corner covering Pickens dove to catch the ball and flipped forward, all while keeping it secure. Based on the camera angle, it looked possible that we just witnessed one of the greatest interceptions of all-time the same night we witnessed one of the greatest catches of all time. However, the corner’s right foot was ever-so-slightly out of bounds, and the Trubisky interception under bettors collectively let out a massive sigh and poured themselves a glass of their finest scotch.
Then there’s the under 192.5 passing yards. There wasn’t a horrible beat for too many people on that. While the over 207.5 bettors probably had a tough time after Diontae Johnson ran backward after catching that last pass — meaning he could’ve had about three extra yards if he just laid down after making the catch, which would’ve put Trubisky at 210 for the day and hit the over — it doesn’t seem that too many people were betting on the over. Under bettors still had a rough day though. How?
After three quarters, Trubisky only had 133 passing yards after three quarters. The Steelers signal-caller needed 60 passing yards in order for over 192.5 to hit.
Fourth quarter woes
The fourth quarter has always been the toughest quarter for Trubisky. For his career, Trubisky has a 59.47 completion percentage in the fourth and a passer rating of 76.3 — both of which are his lowest for any quarter. Trubisky also struggles when his team is losing. When behind, Trubisky completes 61.2 percent of his passes and has a passer rating of 78.4. His yards per attempt also go down in both situations. When Trubisky is winning, his yards per attempt sits at 7.2. When tied, it’s 6.6. When trailing, it falls to 6.2. Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter, Trubisky’s yards per attempt fall from 7.0, 6.5, and 7.3 in the first, second, and third respectively, to just 5.9. When trailing with less than four minutes to go in a game, Trubisky’s career completion percentage is 58.04 percent. His passer rating is 76.9, and his yards per attempt is 5.9.
Playing over his head
Under passing yards bettors were in a prime position to watch Trubisky flounder. He didn’t though. Trubisky passed for 74 yards, almost all of which came on the Steelers’ penultimate drive. Prior to that drive, the Pittsburgh quarterback had only gone 1-of-4 for 7 yards in the fourth quarter. On that third drive of the fourth quarter, something snapped in Trubisky. He started using his tight end, Pat Freiermuth. Prior to that drive, Freiermuth had only seen one target all game. After a 13-yard gain by Diontae Johnson on the first play, Trubisky found Freiermuth on two consecutive plays for gains of 26 and 15. All of a sudden, Trubisky’s passing yardage had shot up from 140 to 194. The over had officially hit in the span of three plays, or just 27 seconds of game time.
For his career, Trubisky has never had a season where he’s averaged over 60 passing yards within the fourth quarter. Trubisky has at all times wanted an ideal storm to ensure that him to throw for greater than 60 yards within the fourth, but in a sport the place the wind was robust sufficient to push field goal attempts wide right. Trubisky managed to drag it off. That’s gotta harm.
Oh, there was yet another. Claypool’s receiving yardage whole of 35.5 went from being a lock at 41 yards earlier than that last play — when Johnson lateralled him the ball — to a loss at 35 yards after it. Ugh.
Principally, final night time was a cesspool of unlucky occasions for bettors throughout the nation. In case you see your soccer fan co-worker or relative trying glum this morning, be sure to allow them to know the way unhealthy a beat they stumbled into. It sucks, but it surely occurs. It simply so occurred to occur loads final night time.